AFGHANISTAN - THE ANALOGY FALLACY

By Vinod Saighal*

"Afghanistan is the graveyard of Empires". This is the constant lament of the critics of the US intervention in Afghanistan. The analogy is fallacious. The statement would be partially correct were it to be relegated to the past tense. True enough that the Afghan imbroglio contributed significantly to the demise of the Soviet Empire. However, it scarce made a dent in the British Empire that was engaged with Afghanistan for a hundred years. In the latter case, when all is said and done, the British remained the dominant power compared to the inroads that were being attempted in that country by Czarist Russia and some lesser regional players. At the end of the day the British were able to dictate terms and as their final legacy they left behind the Durand Line. The US led intervention in Afghanistan is not even remotely similar.

An attack on the US on September 11, 2001 by elements from Afghanistan with the tacit backing of the Pakistan ISI provoked a response from the remaining superpower. When the Americans decided to oust the Taliban from Afghanistan the physical assault on Kabul was carried out by Afghans themselves, mainly Tajiks and Uzbeks of the Northern Alliance under Marshal Fahim, who took over the mantle after the assassination of Ahmed Shah Masood. The Tajik leader had stood rocklike against the Taliban as he had done earlier against the Russians. His assassination on 9 Sept, 2001 was orchestrated by the Pakistan ISI in order to bring the whole of Afghanistan under the sway of the Taliban as a prelude to the push into Central Asia. No doubt without the heavy bombing by the Americans the Northern Alliance would not have been able to capture Kabul and oust the Taliban elsewhere in Afghanistan. The rapidity of the advance does suggest, however, that the average Afghan was happy to see the back of the Taliban. The situation today in Afghanistan is very different from the British and Russian interventions. The US has no desire to occupy Afghanistan in the manner that the British or the Russians might have attempted to do in the past to extend the boundaries of their respective empires. The Afghans recalling their bitter experience with the first Taliban dispensation prior to October 2001 certainly would not welcome another Taliban dictatorship. The Alliance forces have stepped in to oust the Pakistan-backed Taliban in order to allow the Afghans to run their country without outside interference and, more importantly, to eliminate the threat that could materialize in the future from a regrouped Taliban-al Qaida combine. Moreover, it was at the behest of the Americans that many countries from around the world committed large funds for the development of Afghanistan; that the development process has not picked up speed can be attributed to a large extent to the disruptions caused by the Pakistan backed Taliban .
In short, by no stretch of imagination can the intervention by the US alliance be likened to earlier interventions by the British and the Russians. What is more, most countries in the region support the US intervention. Therefore, to apply the "The graveyard of the Empires" analogy is not only patently false but propagandistic in nature, designed to discourage the populations in USA and the west from supporting their governments. The US and its allies cannot meet the fate of the Russians. To the contrary, they are likely to bring a turnaround in the situation in Afghanistan in as little as 5 years. A premature pullout would create renewed instability in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia.

In sum the type of commitment that is being bestowed on Afghanistan - and Pakistan for that matter - could eventually lead for a unified Afghan nation in a manner that would hardly have been conceivable in the past, with a professional standing army, central police forces, judiciary, communications networks and other attributes of a modern state; provided outside interference is largely eliminated. Future success in Afghanistan can be assured by ridding Pakistan of elements that destabilize Afghanistan. Lately they have increased their ability to create mayhem in the rest of the world. At some later date they would be in a position to get hold of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and delivery systems, thereby holding the world to ransom.
Afghanistan becomes the base from which the most serious threat to the world, emanating from Pakistan, can be dealt with. Any pullout from Afghanistan would leave the field clear for the radicalized Pakistan elements to re-establish themselves in Afghanistan and threaten Central Asia. And should they get hold of even a portion of Pakistan's nuclear and delivery assets it would become well nigh impossible to deal with them at that stage. Using Afghanistan as the base, all means have to be used to eliminate the global threat located in Pakistan for the sake of the world, Afghanistan, and, in the ultimate analysis, Pakistan itself.

New Delhi December 11, 2009
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* Maj. Gen. (Retd) Vinod Saighal, Author: Third Millennium Equipoise, Restructuring South Asian Security, Restructuring Pakistan, Dealing with Global Terrorism: The Way Forward and Global Security Paradoxes 2000-2020.