I was interviewed by several Latin American journalists after the launch of the Spanish edition of my book Equilibrio en el Tercer Milenio (English title: Third Millennium Equipoise), during the Caracas International Book Fair in the second week of November 2008. Excerpts from the reply relating to the US economy and the choices before president-elect Obama are reproduced below:-
"The US economy is already staggering under a foreign debt of 11 trillion dollars. The Bush administration had undertaken a rescue mission of 700 billion dollars. It is unlikely to revive the US economy, which is in for a recession that could last up to five years or more. Similar packages that the incoming Obama administration administers to boost the economy could simply be throwing good money after bad. Printing paper money and putting it into circulation without the backing of strong fundamentals can be likened, with only slight hyperbole to what happened in Argentina in 1989 to cite a recent example. President-elect Obama will be greatly hamstrung in his efforts to put USA back on the rails.
Hence, with limited choices available to him within the country in the initial period, he must reassert US influence externally to prevent the planet from going into a tailspin a few years or few decades down the line. What are the areas where decisive US leadership can prevent a (possibly) irreversible planetary decline?
First and foremost Mr. Obama must halt and then reverse the militarization of space. The 1972 ABM Treaty was the linchpin of global security till the turn of the century before President George W. Bush unilaterally abrogated the treaty. Therefore, Mr. Obama must first restore mutual confidence between USA and Russia for which he will have strong backing from the European Union. Once the groundwork for stopping the militarization of space has been prepared between USA, Russia and the EU, China and India will automatically follow suit. In the process several hundred billion dollars, if not trillion dollars, will also be saved and put to more productive use.
The second important aspect relates to the forthcoming NPT Review Conference in 2010 for which the preparatory work will begin in 2009. President- elect Obama - the harbinger of change - owes it to the world to make the Nuclear P5 states show tangible progress on Article VI of the NPT; Otherwise, for all practical purposes, this enormously important treaty for the well-being of humanity can be considered a dead letter thereafter. Horizontal proliferation will take off in a big way, both overtly and covertly.
The third important issue relates to the Kyoto Protocol. Not only must the USA participate more meaningfully, it must assume leadership and propel it towards much higher goals than is presently the case. Should there be further dithering in this regard the world will be overtaken by events over which it will have no control - well before 2050, if not by 2020."
Hence, with limited choices available to him within the country in the initial period, he must reassert US influence externally to prevent the planet from going into a tailspin a few years or few decades down the line. What are the areas where decisive US leadership can prevent a (possibly) irreversible planetary decline?
First and foremost Mr. Obama must halt and then reverse the militarization of space. The 1972 ABM Treaty was the linchpin of global security till the turn of the century before President George W. Bush unilaterally abrogated the treaty. Therefore, Mr. Obama must first restore mutual confidence between USA and Russia for which he will have strong backing from the European Union. Once the groundwork for stopping the militarization of space has been prepared between USA, Russia and the EU, China and India will automatically follow suit. In the process several hundred billion dollars, if not trillion dollars, will also be saved and put to more productive use.
The second important aspect relates to the forthcoming NPT Review Conference in 2010 for which the preparatory work will begin in 2009. President- elect Obama - the harbinger of change - owes it to the world to make the Nuclear P5 states show tangible progress on Article VI of the NPT; Otherwise, for all practical purposes, this enormously important treaty for the well-being of humanity can be considered a dead letter thereafter. Horizontal proliferation will take off in a big way, both overtly and covertly.
The third important issue relates to the Kyoto Protocol. Not only must the USA participate more meaningfully, it must assume leadership and propel it towards much higher goals than is presently the case. Should there be further dithering in this regard the world will be overtaken by events over which it will have no control - well before 2050, if not by 2020."
Vino Saighal, Conseiller International du CEPS en Inde
Commenter
